Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2024: Players to Avoid Identified by MLB Computer Model, Including Daulton Varsho's Decline

March 20, 2024

Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2024: Players to Avoid Identified by MLB Computer Model, Including Daulton Varsho's Decline

SportsLine conducted a simulation of the entire MLB season and pinpointed Fantasy baseball players for 2024 who are projected to underperform relative to their Average Draft Position (ADP).

The final season of a player's contract often holds significant importance, potentially altering their life's trajectory based on performance. Approaches to contract negotiations vary among players; some engage in discussions throughout the year, while others prefer to delay until the offseason, or even until after Opening Day. In Fantasy baseball, managers frequently target players in contract years, anticipating heightened motivation and the potential for standout performances with a lucrative payday looming on the horizon. Notable impending free agents for the 2024 season include Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Gleyber Torres, and Alex Bregman, prompting questions about whether their contract status should influence their rankings in Fantasy baseball for the upcoming season.

However, it's essential to recognize that being in a contract year doesn't always guarantee increased production. Some players may succumb to excessive pressure, leading to underwhelming performances. So, when formulating a 2024 Fantasy baseball strategy, it's crucial to consider these factors.

For example, Pete Alonso has consistently delivered impressive power numbers, averaging 44 home runs over four full MLB seasons. Should his impending free agency compel Fantasy baseball managers to select him even higher in 2024 drafts? Before finalizing your draft preparations, consulting the 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings and cheat sheets from the trusted computer model at SportsLine is advisable.

In the previous season, SportsLine's Projection Model accurately identified numerous Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts, and busts, including Daulton Varsho of the Blue Jays. Despite lofty expectations from Fantasy managers, Varsho's performance fell short in 2023, as predicted by the model, illustrating the importance of considering all factors when making draft decisions.

The outcome was evident: Varsho's OPS plummeted from .745 to .674, accompanied by declines in home runs (20) and RBI (61), and he failed to capitalize on the new baserunning rules, with only 16 steals once again. Those who heeded the model's advice and steered clear of Varsho in their Fantasy baseball drafts avoided significant disappointment.

The SportsLine model, crafted by the same experts behind projections for all three major Fantasy platforms, is now offering its 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings and cheat sheets. These resources can aid in identifying Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts, and busts well ahead of the competition. Updated regularly, their cheat sheets cater to leagues on various major platforms and are refreshed multiple times daily.

With ongoing developments in MLB free agency signings and Fantasy baseball injuries, the SportsLine team promptly adjusts its projections to provide the latest insights.

Here are some of the top 2024 Fantasy baseball busts according to the model:

Firstly, Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz is a player the model is cautious about. Despite being a highly touted prospect in baseball for several seasons and making his debut on June 6 last season, his pre-debut performance in the minor leagues garnered attention, hitting three balls with an exit velocity exceeding 116 mph in one game, including a 118.8 mph double. This led to increased hype surrounding De La Cruz before his arrival in Cincinnati.

Standing at 6-foot-5, De La Cruz possesses a rare blend of size and speed, stealing 35 bases and hitting 13 home runs over 98 games as a rookie. While there's undeniable excitement surrounding his potential, the inflated hype has pushed his Average Draft Position (ADP) to levels that the model deems concerning. In 2024 Fantasy baseball drafts, De La Cruz is being selected ahead of established shortstops like Xander Bogaerts, J.P Crawford, and Dansby Swanson, despite these veterans boasting higher OPS figures than De La Cruz last season. The model advises against succumbing to the hype surrounding De La Cruz and instead exercising caution when drafting him.

Another player identified as a potential Fantasy baseball bust for 2024 by the model is Dodgers starting pitcher Bobby Miller. Selected in the first round of the 2020 draft, Miller made a strong MLB debut in May, starting with a 3-0 record and a remarkable 0.78 ERA in his first four starts. However, opponents began to exploit weaknesses in his pitching repertoire after studying film on him, leading to inconsistency in his performance. Following his initial success, Miller struggled, posting a 4.44 ERA over his subsequent 18 starts. Additionally, he endured a difficult postseason appearance, surrendering three earned runs in just 1.2 innings pitched.

Miller's promotion to the majors last season was expedited due to injuries within the Dodgers' roster, indicating that he is still a work in progress rather than a polished product. His performance in both Double-A and Triple-A, where he posted an ERA above 4.00, is consistent with his output following his initial four-game surge in the majors. According to the model, Miller is more reminiscent of the struggling pitcher he was towards the end of last season rather than the dominant force he appeared to be at the beginning of his MLB career. Despite having an Average Draft Position (ADP) within the top 100, the SportsLine model does not rank Miller among the top 35 starting pitchers, indicating a higher likelihood of him being labeled a Fantasy baseball bust.

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Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2024: Players to Avoid Identified by MLB Computer Model, Including Daulton Varsho's Decline

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